Q4 Report – North King County

Q4: October 1 – December 31, 2018

NORTH KING COUNTY: 2018 was a year of change and growth. The market shifted from an extreme seller’s market,but still had strong gains. Year-over-year, median price is up 9% and since 2012 has increased 92%! Over the last 19 years, the average year-over-year price increase has been 6%. This puts into perspective the growth we have experienced, resulting in well-established equity levels. In 2018, inventory averaged 1.5 months, double that of 2017. This caused the month-over-month price gains to slow, and we experienced a price correction over the second half of the year. We expect to see more average levels of price appreciation in 2019 as the market continues to balance out.

After six years of expansion resulting in an extreme seller’s market, in 2018 we encountered a market shift in the late spring. Inventory increased, interest rates took a jump, and demand took a step back to re-evaluate the new playing field. This resulted in a tempering of month-over-month price appreciation, and has established some long-awaited balance. This balance has brought opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Buyers have more selection and are negotiating terms like inspection items and concessions. Sellers are sitting on 6+ years of equity growth, and are now able to sell their home and make a move without fearing where they will land next. Interest rates are still well below the 30-year average, currently hovering just under 5%. We are seeing demand start to re-engage now that the new normal has settled in.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in north King County; please contact me if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Posted on January 17, 2019 at 12:50 am
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Q4 Report – Seattle Metro

Q4: October 1 – December 31, 2018

SEATTLE METRO: 2018 was a year of change and growth. The market shifted from an extreme seller’s market, but still had strong gains. Year-over-year, medianprice is up 9% and since 2012 has increased 93%! Over the last 19 years, the average year-over-year price increase has been 6%. This puts into perspective the growth we have experienced, resulting in well-established equity levels. In 2018, inventory averaged 1.5 months, double that of 2017. This caused the month-over-month price gains to slow, and we experienced a price correction over the second half of the year. We expect to see more average levels of price appreciation in 2019 as the market continues to balance out.

After six years of expansion resulting in an extreme seller’s market, in 2018 we encountered a market shift in the late spring. Inventory increased, interest rates took a jump, and demand took a step back to re-evaluate the new playing field. This resulted in a tempering of month-over-month price appreciation, and has established some long-awaited balance. This balance has brought opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Buyers have more selection and are negotiating terms like inspection items and concessions. Sellers are sitting on 6+ years of equity growth, and are now able to sell their home and make a move without fearing where they will land next. Interest rates are still well below the 30-year average, currently hovering just under 5%. We are seeing demand start to re-engage now that the new normal has settled in.

This is only a snapshot of the trends the Seattle Metro area; please contact me if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Posted on January 17, 2019 at 12:46 am
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Q4 Report – Eastside

Q4: October 1 – December 31, 2018

EASTSIDE: 2018 was a year of change and growth. The market shifted from an extreme seller’s market, but still had strong gains. Year-over-year, median price is up 8% and since 2012 has increased 87%! Over the last 19 years, the average year-over-year price increase has been 6%. This puts into perspective the growth we have experienced, resulting in well-established equity levels. In 2018, inventory averaged 2 months, double that of 2017. This caused the month-over-month price gains to slow, and we experienced a price correction over the second half of the year. We expect to see more average levels of price appreciation in 2019 as the market continues to balance out.

After six years of expansion resulting in an extreme seller’s market, in 2018 we encountered a market shift in the late spring. Inventory increased, interest rates took a jump, and demand took a step back to re-evaluate the new playing field. This resulted in a tempering of month-over-month price appreciation, and has established some long-awaited balance. This balance has brought opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Buyers have more selection and are negotiating terms like inspection items and concessions. Sellers are sitting on 6+ years of equity growth, and are now able to sell their home and make a move without fearing where they will land next. Interest rates are still well below the 30-year average, currently hovering just under 5%. We are seeing demand start to re-engage now that the new normal has settled in.

This is only a snapshot of the trends on the Eastside; please contact me if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Posted on January 17, 2019 at 12:42 am
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Q4 Report – South Snohomish County

Q4: October 1 – December 31, 2018

SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTY: 2018 was a year of change and growth. The market shifted from an extreme seller’s market, but still had strong gains.  Year-over-year, median price is up 9% and since 2012 has increased 85%! Over the last 19 years, the average year-over-year price increase has been 6%. This puts into perspective the growth we have experienced, resulting in well-established equity levels. In 2018, inventory averaged 1.5 months, double that of 2017. This caused the month-over-month price gains to slow, and we experienced a price correction over the second half of the year. We expect to see more average levels of price appreciation in 2019 as the market continues to balance out.

After six years of expansion resulting in an extreme seller’s market, in 2018 we encountered a market shift in the late spring. Inventory increased, interest rates took a jump, and demand took a step back to re-evaluate the new playing field. This resulted in a tempering of month-over-month price appreciation, and has established some long-awaited balance. This balance has brought opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Buyers have more selection and are negotiating terms like inspection items and concessions. Sellers are sitting on 6+ years of equity growth, and are now able to sell their home and make a move without fearing where they will land next. Interest rates are still well below the 30-year average, currently hovering just under 5%. We are seeing demand start to re-engage now that the new normal has settled in.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in south Snohomish County; please contact me if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Posted on January 16, 2019 at 12:33 am
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Q3 2018 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

 

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Washington State continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the nation and there is little to suggest that there will be any marked slowdown in the foreseeable future. Over the past year, the state has added 105,900 new jobs, representing an annual growth rate of 3.2%. This remains well above the national rate of 1.65%. Private sector employment gains continue to be robust, increasing at an annual rate of 3.7%. The strongest growth sectors were Construction (+7.4%), Information (+6.2%), and Professional & Business Services (+6.1%). The state’s unemployment rate was 4.5%, down from 4.8% a year ago.

 

All year I’ve been predicting that Washington State’s annual job growth would outperform the nation as a whole, and we now know with certainty that this is going to be the case. Furthermore, I am now able to predict that statewide job growth in 2019 will be equally strong, with an expected increase of 2.6%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 22,310 home sales during the third quarter of 2018. This is a significant drop of 12.7% compared to the third quarter of 2017.
  • The number of homes for sale last quarter was up 14.5% compared to the third quarter of 2017, continuing a trend that started earlier in the year. However, the increase in listings was only in Seattle’s tri-county area (King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties) while listing activity was down across the balance of the region.
  • Only two counties had a year-over-year increase in home sales, while the rest of Western Washington saw sales decrease.
  • The region has reached an inflection point. With the increase in the number of homes for sale, buyers now have more choices and time to make​ a decision about what home to buy.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • As inventory levels start to rise, some of the heat has been taken off the market, which caused home prices in the Western Washington region to go up by a relatively modest 6.2% over last year to $503,039. Notably, prices are down by 4.4% when compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Home prices, although higher than a year ago, continue to slow due to the significant increase in the number of homes for sale. This, in my opinion, is a very good thing.​​
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Lewis County, where home prices were up 15.3%. Six other counties experienced double-digit price increases.​
  • Slowing price growth was inevitable; we simply could not sustain the increases we’ve experienced in recent years. Lower rates of appreciation will continue until wage growth catches up.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by four days compared to the same quarter of 2017.​
  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 39 days to sell a home in the third quarter of this year. This is down from 43 days in the third quarter of 2017 and down 2 days when compared to the second quarter of 2018.​
  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 19 days to sell. Every county in the region other than Skagit and King — which both saw the time on the market rise by 2 days — saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to the same period a year ago.​​
  • More choice in the market would normally suggest that the length of time it takes to sell a home should rise, but the data has yet to show that. That said, compared to last quarter, we are seeing some marked increases in days on market in several counties, which will be reflected in future reports.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. I started to move the needle toward buyers last quarter and have moved it even further this quarter. Price growth continues to slow, but more significant is the rise in listings, which I expect to continue as we move toward the quieter winter period.

 

I believe that psychology will start to play a part in the housing market going forward. It has been more than 15 years since we’ve experienced a “balanced” market, so many home buyers and sellers have a hard time remembering what one looks like. Concerns over price drops are overrated and the length of time it’s taking to sell a home is simply trending back to where it used to be in the early 2000s.

*Mr. Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. 

Posted on October 25, 2018 at 8:45 pm
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Q3 Market Trends – South Snohomish/Eastside/North King/Seattle Metro

Q3: July 1 – September 30, 2018

 

SOUTH SNOHOMISH COUNTY: In September, the average days on market landed at 27 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 98%. Since May, inventory growth has been noticeable, and has given buyers more options. This has led to more negotiations and fewer bidding wars, which is tempering month-over-month price growth to a more sustainable level.

Back in April, the average days on market was 14 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 104%; but months of inventory based on pending sales was 0.8 months, compared to 2.5 months currently. Year-over-year, prices are up 11%, still well above the historical norm of 3%-5% year-over-year gains—but note that the majority of this growth happened during the spring, due to constricted inventory levels.

Supply has increased, creating more options for buyers and helping to buffer affordability issues. Many sellers are deciding to make moves and cash in on the equity gained over the last six years. An average original list-to-sale price ratio of 98% is a positive return, yet illustrates a softening in the market after some very extreme times. With 11% price growth over the last 12-months in a seller’s favor, the increase in selection has led to more nimble moves from one house to another. Where sellers need to be careful is anticipating the month-over-month price growth we saw prior to the shift in inventory. Prospective buyers would be smart to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and the added inventory selection.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in south Snohomish County; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

 

 

 

 

Q3: July 1 – September 30, 2018

 

THE EASTSIDE: In September, the average days on market landed at 32 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 98%. Since May, inventory growth has been noticeable, and has given buyers more options. This has led to more negotiations and fewer bidding wars, which is tempering month-over-month price growth to a more sustainable level.

Back in April, the average days on market was 13 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 103%; but months of inventory based on pending sales was 0.8 months, compared to 2.9 months currently. Year-over-year, prices are up 10%, still well above the historical norm of 3%-5% year-over-year gains—but note that the majority of this growth happened during the spring, due to constricted inventory levels.

Supply has increased, creating more options for buyers and helping to buffer affordability issues. Many sellers are deciding to make moves and cash in on the equity gained over the last six years. An average original list-to-sale price ratio of 98% is a positive return, yet illustrates a softening in the market after some very extreme times. With 10% price growth over the last 12-months in a seller’s favor, the increase in selection has led to more nimble moves from one house to another. Where sellers need to be careful is anticipating the month-over-month price growth we saw prior to the shift in inventory. Prospective buyers would be smart to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and the added inventory selection.

This is only a snapshot of the trends on the Eastside; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

 

 

 

 

 

Q3: July 1 – September 30, 2018

 

NORTH KING COUNTY: In September, the average days on market landed at 23 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 98%. Since May, inventory growth has been noticeable, and has given buyers more options. This has led to more negotiations and fewer bidding wars, which is tempering month-over-month price growth to a more sustainable level.

Back in April, the average days on market was 12 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 106%; but months of inventory based on pending sales was 0.8 months, compared to 2.2 months currently. Year-over-year, prices are up 10%, still well above the historical norm of 3%-5% year-over-year gains—but note that the majority of this growth happened during the spring, due to constricted inventory levels.

Supply has increased, creating more options for buyers and helping to buffer affordability issues. Many sellers are deciding to make moves and cash in on the equity gained over the last six years. An average original list-to-sale price ratio of 98% is a positive return, yet illustrates a softening in the market after some very extreme times. With 10% price growth over the last 12-months in a seller’s favor, the increase in selection has led to more nimble moves from one house to another. Where sellers need to be careful is anticipating the month-over-month price growth we saw prior to the shift in inventory. Prospective buyers would be smart to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and the added inventory selection.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in north King County; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

 

 

 

 

 

Q3: July 1 – September 30, 2018

 

SEATTLE METRO: In September, the average days on market landed at 23 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 98%. Since May, inventory growth has been noticeable, and has given buyers more options. This has led to more negotiations and fewer bidding wars, which is tempering month-over-month price growth to a more sustainable level.

Back in April, the average days on market was 11 days and the original list-to-sale price ratio 105%; but months of inventory based on pending sales was 0.8 months, compared to 2.4 months currently. Year-over-year, prices are up 11%, still well above the historical norm of 3%-5% year-over-year gains—but note that the majority of this growth happened during the spring, due to constricted inventory levels.

Supply has increased, creating more options for buyers and helping to buffer affordability issues. Many sellers are deciding to make moves and cash in on the equity gained over the last six years. An average original list-to-sale price ratio of 98% is a positive return, yet illustrates a softening in the market after some very extreme times. With 10% price growth over the last 12-months in a seller’s favor, the increase in selection has led to more nimble moves from one house to another. Where sellers need to be careful is anticipating the month-over-month price growth we saw prior to the shift in inventory. Prospective buyers would be smart to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and the added inventory selection.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in the Seattle Metro area; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

 

Posted on October 12, 2018 at 12:16 am
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Q2 2018 Gardner Report

 The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Agent. 

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 83,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This is a slowdown from the last quarter, but employment growth remains well above the national rate of 1.6%. Employment gains continue to be robust in the private sector, which was up by 2.8%. The public sector (government) grew by a more modest 1.1%.

The strongest growth sectors were Retail Trade and Construction, which both rose by 4.8%. Significant growth was also seen in the Education & Health Services and Information sectors, which rose by 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively.

The State’s unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 4.8% a year ago. Washington State will continue adding jobs for the balance of the year and I anticipate total job growth for 2018 will be around 80,000, representing a total employment growth rate of 2.4%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 23,209 home sales during the second quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 2.3% compared to the same period a year ago
  • Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the same period a year ago, with an increase of 12.6%. Jefferson County also saw significant gains in sales at 11.1%.
  • The number of homes for sale last quarter was down by a nominal 0.3% when compared to the second quarter of 2017, but up by 66% when compared to the first quarter of this year. Much has been mentioned regarding the growth in listings, but it was not region-wide. King County saw a massive 31.7% increase in inventory, though all but three of the other counties covered in this report saw the number of listings drop compared to a year ago.
  • The takeaway from this data is that while some counties are seeing growth in listings — which will translate into sales down the road — the market is still out of balance.

 

HOME PRICES

  • As inventory is still fairly scarce, growth in home prices continues to trend well above the long-term average. Prices in Western Washington rose 12.2% over last year to $526,398.
  • Home prices continue to trend higher across Western Washington, but the pace of growth has started to slow. This should please would-be buyers. The spring market came late but inventory growth in the expensive King County market will give buyers more choices and likely lead to a slowing down of price growth as bidding wars continue to taper.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Mason County, which was up 17.4%. Eleven other counties experienced double-digit price growth.
  • Mortgage rates, which had been rising significantly since the start of the year, have leveled off over the past month. I believe rising rates are likely the reason that inventory levels are rising, as would-be sellers believe that this could be the right time to cash out. That said, the slowing in rate increases has led buyers to believe that rates will not jump soon, which gives them a little more breathing room. I do not expect to see any possible slowdown in demand until mortgage rates breach the 5% mark.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by seven days compared to the same quarter of 2017.
  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 13 days to sell. Every county in the region other than Clallam saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to the same period a year ago.
  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of this year. This is down from 48 days in the second quarter of 2017 and down by 20 days when compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of this year. This is down from 48 days in the second quarter of 2017 and down by 20 days when compared to the first quarter of 2018.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers, but it remains firmly a seller’s market. This shift is a function of price growth tapering very slightly, as well as the expectation that we should see more homes come on the market as we move through the balance of the year.

Mr. Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted on July 26, 2018 at 9:33 pm
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

Seattle Eastside – Q2 Quarterly Report 2018

Q2: April 1 – June 30, 2018

Eastside Quarterly Market Trends

As we head into the summer months we are seeing a healthy jump in inventory in our area. In May, we saw the biggest jump in new listings in a decade! Price appreciation has created this phenomenon, motivating many people to make big moves with their equity. In fact, prices are up 11% year-over-year. We currently sit at 1.5 months of inventory based on pending sales. This more-equal balance of homes for sale compared to the first quarter has created great opportunities for buyers, finally! While it is still a seller’s market, it has eased up a bit. The average days on market in June was 19 days and the average list-to-sale price ratio was 101%. Eastside real estate has a very high premium due to close-in commute times, great neighborhoods and strong school districts. In fact, the median price in June was $980,000. Sellers are enjoying great returns due to buyers choosing to lay down roots in our area, and buyers are securing mortgages with minor debt service due to low interest rates. The easing of inventory is a welcome change and is helping to temper price growth. This is only a snapshot of the trends on the Eastside; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Posted on July 20, 2018 at 11:01 pm
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

North King County – Q2 Quarterly Report 2018

Q2: April 1 – June 30, 2018

As we head into the summer months we are seeing a healthy jump in inventory in our area. In May, we saw the biggest jump in new listings in a decade!

Price appreciation has created this phenomenon, motivating many people to make big moves with their equity. In fact, prices are up 13% year-over-year. We currently sit at 1.1 months of inventory based on pending sales. This more-equal balance of homes for sale compared to the first quarter has created great opportunities for buyers, finally! While it is still a seller’s market, it has eased up a bit. The average days on market in June was 16 days and the average list-to-sale price ratio was 103%.

North King County real estate has a very high premium due to close-in commute times and vibrant neighborhoods. In fact, the median price in June was $800,000. Sellers are enjoying great returns due to buyers choosing to lay down roots in our area, and buyers are securing mortgages with minor debt service due to low interest rates. The easing of inventory is a welcome change and is helping to temper price growth.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in north King County; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

Posted on July 20, 2018 at 10:50 pm
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information

South Snohomish County – Q2 Quarterly Report 2018

Q2: April 1 – June 30, 2018

 

As we head into the summer months we are seeing a healthy jump in inventory in our area. In May, we saw the biggest jump in new listings in a decade!

Price appreciation has created this phenomenon, motivating many people to make big moves with their equity. In fact, prices are up 13% year-over-year. We currently sit at 1.3 months of inventory based on pending sales. This more-equal balance of homes for sale compared to the first quarter has created great opportunities for buyers, finally! While it is still a seller’s market, it has eased up a bit. The average days on market in June was 11 days and the average list-to-sale price ratio was 102%.

South Snohomish County real estate has been an affordable option compared to “in-city” real estate. In fact, the median price in June was 41% higher in Seattle Metro. Sellers are enjoying great returns due to buyers choosing to lay down roots in our area, and buyers are securing mortgages with minor debt service due to low interest rates. The easing of inventory is a welcome change and is helping to temper price growth.

This is only a snapshot of the trends in south Snohomish County; please contact us if you would like further explanation of how the latest trends relate to you.

 

Posted on July 20, 2018 at 10:40 pm
Becky and Steve Larsen | Category: Quarterly Reports, Statistical Information